Australia's Immigration Crisis Could Rock The Real Estate Market

What if I told you there are 37% fewer rental properties available today compared to a decade ago? (You would freak out).

‍

In this blog, I’m diving into the rental supply crisis and the impact of immigration on housing here in Australia. If you're curious about my take on these pressing issues, stick around—you won't want to miss it.

‍

‍

‍

Supply Crisis

‍

Over the past few years, we've witnessed significant volatility in the rental market, the housing market—honestly, it feels like there’s a crisis at every turn. The reality is that these challenges disproportionately impact one group of people: lower-income earners and the middle class.

‍

‍

I made a video on my YouTube channel last year, and I said, "Look, the death of the middle class is playing out. You should probably make some moves now." Based on all the data I'm seeing, it's moving twice as fast as what I thought it was back then.

‍

Now, I saw some statistics that really blew my mind. There are 272,645 properties currently listed for sale—-25% less than 10 years ago, which was 363,853.

‍

There are 41,894 properties currently advertised for rent—-37% less than 10 years ago, which was 66,639.

‍

Now, this addresses supply, and I've said to you before: when supply goes down and demand is higher, you'll see prices go up. 

‍

Over the last decade, housing supply has fallen—25% for sales and 37% for rentals—while Australia’s population grew by 4 million. The result? Demand has skyrocketed, but we don’t have enough properties to meet it.

‍

If we keep increasing immigration without addressing this housing shortage, we’re heading for a crisis. In my opinion, Australia is on a dangerous path, and it’s not looking good.

‍

‍

‍

Immigration Crisis

‍

Let’s examine the data on new housing completions versus immigration and population change over time.

‍

During the pandemic and the lockdowns, we saw immigration go down. 

‍

‍

Following that, we’ve seen the highest number of immigrants come in.

‍

‍

While growth is starting to taper off, don’t get too excited. The ideal range is around 200,000 to 300,000 people annually.

‍

However, for the next few years, projections show numbers closer to 450,000 to 500,000—nearly double Australia’s average.

‍

‍

Now, what we can also see is that with housing completions, we did see them at all-time highs between 2015 and 2018, but since then, we've now leveled out just above our averages that we've seen over the long-term period. 

‍

‍

As long as the blue line stays below the red line, it’s clear that demand will far exceed the supply entering the market.

‍

To break it down: around 500,000 people are arriving in Australia annually (right-hand side), while only 180,000 properties are being completed each year (left-hand side). Not all newcomers will need their own homes—some will share accommodations or live with families—but the gap remains significant.

‍

However, this still clearly highlights a mismatch between immigration and housing supply.

‍

As a result, I wanted to highlight something quite concerning: the rental market. We've all heard about the rental crisis and how it's been playing out.  What you can see below is that it was pretty sustainable growth from 2010 all the way to 2019.

‍

‍

However, due to insufficient building and the introduction of significantly more people—leading to the immigration crisis—these numbers have grown exponentially. This trend is evident in both houses and units.

‍

‍

Property supply and demand are closely linked, and the market shows clear patterns. Supply tapers off faster for units than houses because units can be built in larger numbers more quickly. For example, while a single house might take 12–18 months to build, developers can construct 100–500 units in about three years. This is why houses, with their limited land component, often outperform units in value—they’re harder to replicate.

‍

Predictions of a market collapse often rely on unlikely triggers like halting immigration or instant housing reforms. Even during the pandemic, property prices rose instead of falling. Historically, property values haven’t skyrocketed; instead, the purchasing power of currency has declined, making real estate a reliable long-term investment.

‍

1. If the market did collapse, what would that actually look like?
   • For a collapse of 30% or 40%, as some people claim, the market would have to do something unprecedented—something it's never done before.
2. Markets often rhyme; they usually repeat.
   • If we haven’t seen such an event before, experiencing it would require a significant and unique trigger.

‍

Now, the average income required to buy a house is significantly higher than it was 20 years ago. But this trend has persisted over decades.

• 20 years ago, affordability was tougher than 20 years before that.
• This isn’t due to property values skyrocketing; it’s because the currency used to buy them has lost value—99% over the long term.

‍

That's why you need to think that the properties aren't going up in value. Understand this—the properties aren't going up in value, it's that the currency that you buy it with is losing its value. That completely shifted how I thought about real estate and why I continue to invest in real estate, despite all the people coming out saying: There's an 18.6 cycle, everything's going to collapse, I'm going to be the smartest because I can sell at the 

‍

My strategy is simple: maintain an emergency fund, invest consistently, and hold properties for 10–20 years. Short-term dips don’t matter when you’re in it for the long haul.

‍

I hope this article has offered valuable insights into why I remain confident in real estate investment.

‍

If you haven’t already, grab a copy  of my book, Retire Filthy Rich with Real Estate! It’s already an Amazon #1 bestseller, and I’m so grateful to everyone who’s supported it so far.

‍

This is set to be the top book for building wealth through real estate in 2025, especially in the Australian market. Dive in, and let me know your thoughts—I’d love your feedback!

‍

I'll catch you guys in the next one.

‍

Thanks, guys.